Friday, March 7, 2014

Altria Group (MO): A Smoking Hot Dividend Champion

Altria Group, Inc. (MO), through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes, smokeless products, and wine in the United States and internationally. This dividend champion has managed to increase dividends to shareholders for 44 years in a row.

Many databases show reductions in dividend payments in 2007 and 2008, which is due to the spin-offs of Kraft Foods and Philip Morris International (PM). As a result, Altria was kicked out of what I used to believe was the elite dividend aristocrat index. The investors in Altria from early 2007 would have received shares in Kraft and Philip Morris International, and therefore their total dividend income would not have suffered at all. It actually increased, because all three companies raised dividends in 2008. Those original Kraft shares were further split into Mondelez International (MDLZ) and Kraft (KRFT). This is why one should not focus on purely quantitative characteristics, but also take the time to understand companies by analyzing them in detail one at a time. By focusing too much on screening, you might miss out on important information.

Since the spin-off of Philip Morris International in 2008, quarterly dividends per share have increased from 29 cents/share to 48 cents/share in 2013.

Altria Group pays a very high portion of net income as dividends to shareholders. However, it has limited needs to reinvest large portions of its net income, which is why this ratio is not as troubling as it would be for Coca-Cola (KO) for example. In the old days, Altria used its strong cash flows to diversify into food and spirits, but I do not think this is the case nowadays. Back until the early 2000s, Altria was known as Philip Morris. Now, it has a 26.90% economic and voting interest in SABMiller. Altria earned $402 million in dividends from its stake in SABMiller in 2012. It’s share of SABMiller’s profits was $1.224 billion. This stake is worth approximately 20 – 21 billion dollars at current prices. In comparison, Altria’s market capitalization today is $73 billion.

Earnings per share increased from $1.48 in 2008 to $2.26 by 2013. The company expects to earn $2.57/share by 2014 and $2.76/share by 2015. While I take forward analyst estimates with a grain of salt, I have a high degree of confidence that Altria can achieve decent earnings growth in the long-run, fueled by price increases which are higher than declines in volume and cost restructurings. This could translate into quarterly dividends hitting $2.05/share in 2014 and $2.20 in 2015.

The future for tobacco consumption in the US is bleak. I would estimate that amount of cigarettes sold will decline by 3% - 4%/year for the foreseeable future. There are bans on smoking in public, buildings, parks, bars etc.

However, there is a difference between the future for tobacco consumption, and the future for tobacco companies. The reason behind this variance is stemming from the fact that demand for cigarette products is relatively inelastic. This means that an increase in the price of cigarettes typically results in declines in the amount of cigarette consumption. The increase in prices however is usually higher than the declines in consumption, which results in higher revenues overall.

The market for tobacco companies is inefficient, because there are some investors who are biased against tobacco companies, regardless of valuation or future business prospects. This does not mean these investors are morally right or wrong – they have the right to their own opinions. However, they are not being rational in evaluating tobacco companies as investments.

Most know about the terrible facts about tobacco use. This has led to depressed valuations for tobacco companies in almost all of the times. This means that if you can reinvest those fat dividends at low valuations, your future returns have a very high chance of being pretty good.

Governments need tobacco companies, because it provides them with a healthy stream of revenues through excise taxes for example. Furthermore, it is much more popular to tax the evil tobacco conglomerates, rather than increase taxes on middle class voters, or reduce education expenditures for high-schools

The positives behind companies like Altria includes strong brand loyalty, the fact that consumers are addicted to the product, efficiencies of scale and strong pricing power. It would be almost impossible to start a competing tobacco company today, because of the ban on advertising.

However, the emerging opportunity and threat are e-cigarettes. It seems that these are advertised, and could convert a portion of regular smokers to e-cig smokers. Unfortunately, e-cigarettes could be more disruptive than regulation threats, and they carry slimmer margins. On the positive side, for those legacy tobacco companies that are building up their e-cigarette business, this could be a growth kick to their otherwise stable tobacco revenues. Plus, I would not be surprised if advertising of e-cigarettes reminds consumers about regular cigarettes, thus leading to increase in tobacco consumption. Most recently Phillip Morris International and Altria created an agreement to exclusively commercialize two of Altria’s e-cigarette products outside the U.S.. At the same time, PMI will make available to Altria two of its heated tobacco products for sale in the US.

Recent news about CVS (CVS) dropping tobacco products from its stores may have upset some investors, but those headlines are an example of investment noise out there. It is noise because consumers who were used to purchasing tobacco products at CVS would likely take their business elsewhere. Of course, the real risk is if other retailers follow suit, and decide to stop selling  tobacco products altogether. I see this scenario having a very low likelihood however, since these retailers could lose out not only on tobacco revenues but on incremental revenues that tobacco customers bring with them. For example, if you buy your gasoline at the place that you also buy your pack of  cigarettes, you might simply take all of your business elsewhere if your Marlborough is not available.

For Altria, it has a dominant position in the US tobacco market with Marlboro brand having a very loyal following amongst smokers. The sheer scale of operations allows Altria to exert higher influence on vendors and distributors. The company is also a leader in US the smokeless market, with a 50%-55% market share. The smokeless tobacco segment is expected to generate single digit volume growth.

Currently, this dividend champion sells for 16.10 times earnings, yields 5.30%, and has a high payout ratio. Given the economics of the business, and the expectation for future earnings growth in the mid single digits, I find it attractively valued today. I plan on adding to my position in the company sometime in 2014, subject to availability of funds.

Full Disclosure: Long MO, PM, KRFT, MDLZ

Relevant Articles:

The Security I Like Best: Philip Morris International
How to find long term dividend stock ideas
A long streak of dividend growth is an indication of a business with exceptional fundamentals
The predictive value of rising dividends
Why Investors Should Look Beyond Typical Dividend Growth Screens


  1. I suppose investing prior to all the spinoffs would have been awesome. But I have to settle for initially investing about 2 years ago. Added to my position twice in the interim, for a 7% IRR... and a nearly 20% higher dividend per share since.

    And I wouldn't be opposed to buying more in the near future.

  2. Nice View of this company you keep it up.

    we have actually already seen the impact of e-cigarettes here in Finland as the market for e-cigs has grown hugely in the past years. Many of smokers have dropped smoking normal "smokes" and moved to e-cigarettes.


  3. Altria is a nice company. The risk of a potential ban on tobacco always depresses valuations, which results in low PE and high dividends. Then earnings and dividends increase along the way, which results in compounding miracles..


  4. Hi Dividend Growth Investor,

    Long time reader here, I'm just starting and blogs like yours were part of the reason why I decided to embark on this journey. I even started my own blog describing my progress.

    PM is a company that rings all the right bells for a dividend investor, but I am a bit concerned with the future of tobacco. It's true that for the last decades everyone has been advertising the harms of tobacco, but at this point, it seems particularly aggressive. One example is Australia banning branded tobacco. Are you confident that this won't impact the company performance very much, or do you believe that this risk is already priced in?


Questions or comments? You can reach out to me at my website address name at gmail dot com.

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