Showing posts with label dividend aristocrats. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dividend aristocrats. Show all posts

Thursday, December 31, 2020

2020 Was a Record Year For Dividends

The year 2020 was definitely a turbulent one. It was marked by lockdowns worldwide due to the Covid-19 pandemic, high unemployment and economic turbulence. Yet, it also marks as another record year for US dividend payments, as measured by S&P 500. S&P 500 is a proxy for how US stocks do, since this index of 500 prominent US based companies accounts for 75% - 80% of total stock market capitalization. These are huge companies, with global operations, in 11 industries.

Dividend payments to investors in the S&P 500 rose to a new record in 2020, up 0.7% to $58.28 per share from the previous record set in 2019, according to research from S&P Global. This marked the eleventh consecutive annual dividend increase for annual dividends on the S&P 500 index.

This is due to strong performance in US companies, which expect business to improve over time. The growth in dividends was due to strong first quarter and a strong fourth quarter. While the dividend cuts received a lot of publicity, at the end of the day we ended up with record dividend incomes. 

This also means that the best dividend fund is probably still the S&P 500

In 2020, there were 423 companies on the S&P 500 that paid a dividend. It is fascinating to see that:

- 287 companies raised dividends

- 11 companies initiated dividends

- 27 companies cut dividends

- 42 companies suspended dividends

You can see the performance by sector broken out in the chart below:

It is fascinating to look at how the S&P Dividend Aristocrats did in 2020.

There were 61 dividend increases, and only two dividend cuts and one dividend suspension. The dividend suspension was from Ross Stores (ROST), which had just joined the index at the beginning of 2020.

The dividend cuts were from Amcor (AMCR) and Raytheon Technologies (RTX). Raytheon Technologies was formed when dividend aristocrat United Technologies (UTX) merged with Raytheon (RTN), and then spun off Otis Elevator (OTIS) and Carrier Global (CARR).

The S&P committee also points out to two dividend initiations for the dividend aristocrats index, notably Otis (OTIS) and Carrier Global (CARR).

There were five companies that failed to increase dividends in 2020. If they don't raise dividends anytime by 2021, they would be kicked out of the index. The companies include:

AT&T (T)

Caterpillar (CAT)

Exxon Mobil (XOM)

Leggett & Platt (LEG)

Sysco (SYY)

You can view all the dividend actions year to date below:

You can also view it by sector below:

As I discussed in a previous post, I disagree with the way they handled the transaction where United Technologies spun-off Carrier and Otis. That’s because, based on spin-off weights, it looks like Raytheon Technologies actually increased dividends. Based on pre-spin-offs weights, it looks like Carrier and Otis are not pulling in their weight. In other words, these two companies are paying less than what they would have paid if United Technologies had not done any breakups. Yet, the company that actually ended up raising dividends, and which actually created the long record of annual dividend increases ended up being booted off the S&P Dividend Aristocrats index. It makes no sense that the two spin-offs would be kept due to the record of the original company, but the original companies is booted off because the spin-off itself it is treated as a dividend cut. My head is spinning just thinking about it.

Overall, United Technologies shareholders received less dividends with all the spin-offs than before. Now if you want to treat the whole thing as a dividend cut, that would be logical. But do not treat the original company with the track record as a cut, but the spin-offs that just initiated dividends as dividend aristocrats.

Anyway, my issue is that the S&P committee is not treating spin-offs consistently. In 2007, Altria was kicked off the Dividend Aristocrats list after it spun-off Kraft foods. However, in 2013 they kept both Abbott and Abbvie after the original Abbott Labs split into two companies.

I also disagree with the Dividend Aristocrats committee in adding Amcor (AMCR). It looks like Amcor acquired Bemis in 2019. Bemis had a 36 year track record of annual dividend increases. It is unclear why the acquirer would be treated as a dividend aristocrat and inherit the dividend track record of the acquired company. Looking at Amcor's dividend history, it looks like they cut dividends in 2019, as the quarterly payment went from 12 cents/share to 11.50 cents/share.

Somehow in April, The S&P committee is showing that the annual dividend decreased from 47 cents/share to 46 cents/share. That makes no sense, because the quarterly payment was 11.50 cents/share, which means that the annual payment should have been 46 cents/share to begin with.

Perhaps someone at S&P added the two payments in 2019 together ( 12 cents/share + 11.50 cents/share), then averaged them up to 11.75 cents/share, and annualized it to 47 cents/share. Then, when they saw the first payment of 11.50 cents/share in 2020, they annualized it, and declared that the dividend was cut.


This is Amcor's dividend history since 2019:



I would stop my ramblings now. I will update the dividend aristocrats list in 2020 in a few weeks, but I have always stated that the Dividend Champions list is more extensive. It is best reviewed together with the list of dividend champions. I still like a lot of the companies on the aristocrats list, and find many of them to be of higher quality. It is also easier to learn about 65 dividend aristocrat companies than 138 dividend champions.

Either way, it is fascinating to see that strong dividend payments continued in 2020, despite the global pandemic, economic turbulence and high unemployment. It makes me wonder how much higher we would have been if Covid-19 was contained.

Relevant Articles:

- Index Fund Investors are Closet Dividend Growth Investors

Dividend Aristocrats List for 2020

Dividend Champions List for 2021

Dividend Kings List for 2021

Dividend Aristocrats Keep Performing Well in 2020

What should I do about Raytheon and its spin-offs?

Wednesday, May 6, 2020

Dividend Aristocrats Keep Performing Well in 2020

The dividend aristocrats list includes companies that have managed to increase dividends for 25 years in a row. The list has very stringent criteria for qualification, including being a member of the S&P 500 and having a certain market capitalization and liquidity.

There were 64 dividend aristocrats at the end of 2019. After the spin-off of Otis Elevator and Carrier from United Technologies, the list is up to 66 members as of April 30, 2020.

These companies are high quality, the masters of their respective industries, and the envy of competitors. A lot of them have managed to build those track records of annual dividend increases due to their strong competitive advantages and strong business models that shower them in rising amounts of cash over time.

As a result, it should not be surprising that even during a global pandemic that shut-down a large portion of the Global Economy, these companies are basically chugging along. At least so far.
As an investor, I keep reading snarky remarks about dividend cuts. So far, most of the companies that have cut dividends are from industries that usually cut dividends during a recession. It is true that this current recession borders on the severity of the Great Depression, so perhaps we have not seen the full impact on the economy yet. But so far, only the cyclical businesses that usually cut dividends were the ones to cut in 2020.

The dividend aristocrats have had 24 dividend increases as of the end of April 2020. There have been two dividend cuts so far in 2020. I will explain below why these are not actual dividend cuts, and why I am ignoring them, because they are illusory. The data for this article is sourced from S & P.

You can view the list of year-to-date dividend increases below:

Company
Month
Type of Action
Ticker
New Rate
Old Rate
Dividend Change
Sector
Johnson & Johnson
APR
INCREASE
JNJ
$4.04
$3.80
6.32%
Health Care
People's United Financial, Inc
APR
INCREASE
PBCT
$0.72
$0.71
1.41%
Financials
Procter & Gamble Company
APR
INCREASE
PG
$3.16
$2.98
6.04%
Consumer Staples
Amcor PLC
APR
DECREASE
AMCR
$0.46
$0.47
-2.13%
Materials
Raytheon Technologies Corporat
APR
DECREASE
RTX
$1.90
$2.94
-35.37%
Industrials
Colgate-Palmolive Company
MAR
INCREASE
CL
$1.76
$1.72
2.33%
Consumer Staples
General Dynamics Corporation
MAR
INCREASE
GD
$4.40
$4.08
7.84%
Industrials
Realty Income Corporation
MAR
INCREASE
O
$2.80
$2.79
0.36%
Real Estate
Ross Stores, Inc.
MAR
INCREASE
ROST
$1.14
$1.02
11.76%
Consumer Discretionary
3M Company
FEB
INCREASE
MMM
5.88
5.76
2.08%
Industrials
Aflac Incorporated
FEB
INCREASE
AFL
1.12
1.08
3.70%
Financials
Albemarle Corporation
FEB
INCREASE
ALB
$1.54
$1.47
4.76%
Materials
Cincinnati Financial Corporati
FEB
INCREASE
CINF
2.4
2.24
7.14%
Financials
Coca-Cola Company
FEB
INCREASE
KO
1.64
1.6
2.50%
Consumer Staples
Essex Property Trust, Inc.
FEB
INCREASE
ESS
8.31
7.8
6.54%
Real Estate
Genuine Parts Company
FEB
INCREASE
GPC
3.16
3.05
3.61%
Consumer Discretionary
Linde plc
FEB
INCREASE
LIN
3.85
3.5
10.00%
Materials
Sherwin-Williams Company
FEB
INCREASE
SHW
5.36
4.52
18.58%
Materials
T. Rowe Price Group
FEB
INCREASE
TROW
3.6
3.04
18.42%
Financials
Walmart Inc.
FEB
INCREASE
WMT
2.16
2.12
1.89%
Consumer Staples
Air Products and Chemicals, In
JAN
INCREASE
APD
$5.36
$4.64
15.52%
Materials
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
JAN
INCREASE
ADM
$1.44
$1.40
2.86%
Consumer Staples
Chevron Corporation
JAN
INCREASE
CVX
$5.16
$4.76
8.40%
Energy
Consolidated Edison, Inc.
JAN
INCREASE
ED
$3.06
$2.96
3.38%
Utilities
Kimberly-Clark Corporation
JAN
INCREASE
KMB
$4.28
$4.12
3.88%
Consumer Staples
S&P Global, Inc.
JAN
INCREASE
SPGI
$2.68
$2.28
17.54%
Financials

The list doesn’t include IBM yet, after the company raised its quarterly dividend by a penny to $1.63/share last week. This marked the 25th consecutive annual dividend increase for this newly minted dividend aristocrat.

The first dividend cut comes from Amcor (AMCR), which was added to the Dividend Aristocrats list in 2020. I do not think they should have added this company to the elite list of dividend aristocrats.
Amcor acquired dividend aristocrat Bemis in 2019. Bemis had managed to increase dividends for 32 years in a row. Somehow, Standard & Poor’s decided to transfer the long record of annual dividend increases over to the acquirer. That doesn’t make any logical sense.

If you review the dividend history for Amcor on the company's website, you will notice that they lowered their quarterly dividend from 12 cents/share to 11.50 cent/share in 2019. Amcor did not qualify to be a dividend aristocrat because it had not increased dividends for 25 years, and actually cut them in 2019.

The other issue I have is that Standard & Poor’s has put some incorrect dividend amounts in their calculations. They show the decrease as going from 47 to 46 cents/share. The problem is that if these are annual payments, Amcor never had an annualized payment as 47 cents/share.

The other item to note is related to mergers and spin-offs. In 2020, United Technologies (UTX) spun-off Otis Elevators and Carrier. Shareholders received 1 share of Carrier for each share of UTX they owned. Shareholders received a half share of Otis for every UTX share they held. The company then acquired Raytheon, and changed its name to Raytheon Technologies. Each shareholder of United Technologies (UTX) received one share of Raytheon Technologies (RTX) for each (UTX) share they owned.

S&P has all companies (Raytheon Technologies, Otis, Carrier) listed as dividend aristocrats. That's because the index committee chose to keep them in the index. Before all the transactions too place, United Technologies paid a quarterly dividend of 73.50 cents/share.

Last week, Raytheon Technologies (RTX) has declared a quarterly dividend of 47.50 cents/share.
Standard & Poor’s is listing the new dividend declaration from Raytheon Technologies as a dividend cut. That doesn’t make any sense.

Depending on the dividends for Otis and Carrier, it may look like a dividend increase or a dividend cut. We just don’t know it yet, because Otis and Carrier have not declared their first policy.



If you look at the company's tax basis allocation, Raytheon Technologies (RTX)  represents just 55% of the fair value as of April to begin with. We cannot say that Raytheon Technologies (RTX)  is a dividend cut, until we see what dividends are declared by OTIS and Carrier.

I believe that S&P is being inconsistent in their methodology. For example, when Abbott (ABT) spun-off Abbvie (ABBV) in 2012, Abbott's dividend was reduced. But that was due to the spin-off. A shareholder who kept both Abbott and Abbvie actually saw an increase in their total dividend income.  Hence, both companies were kept on the dividend aristocrats index.

This of course is inconsistent with the treatment of Altria (MO), which was unceremoniously kicked out of the Dividend Aristocrats list in 2007 after it spun-off Kraft Foods. In reality, a shareholder who kept Kraft and Altria did not experience a decrease in total dividends in 2007 or 2008. It is just that S&P is treating spin-offs in an inconsistent manner. They also did not include Kraft Foods as a dividend aristocrat either, despite the fact that they are not including spin-offs like Abbvie, Otis and Carrier as dividend aristocrats.

Therefore, I do not believe they should treat Raytheon Technolgoes (RTX) as a dividend cut.

This is why I would take the list of Dividend Aristocrats Index with a grain of salt. It is an index that in my opinion is incomplete at best, and in my opinion uses an inconsistent methodology to add/remove companies from it.

I would recommend serious investors to use both the Dividend Aristocrats list together with the list of Dividend Champions, in order to come up with a more complete picture of companies that have raised dividends for at least 25 years in a row. Both indices are good enough, but as serious investors, I would recommend you pore over each company and determine for yourself where you stand on it.

Relevant Articles:

- Dividend Aristocrats List for 2020
- Dividend Achievers versus Dividend Contenders & Champions
S&P Dividend Aristocrats Index – An Incomplete List for Dividend Growth Investors
Dividend Champions List for 2020


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