Friday, September 30, 2011

Eaton Vance (EV) Dividend Stock Analysis 2011

Eaton Vance Corp. (EV), through its subsidiaries, engages in the creation, marketing, and management of investment funds in the United States. It also provides investment management and counseling services to institutions and individuals. Eaton Vance is a dividend champion which has paid uninterrupted dividends on its common stock since 1976 and increased payments to common shareholders every year for 30 years.

The most recent dividend increase was in October 2010, when the Board of Directors approved a 12.50% increase in the quarterly dividend to 18 cents/share. Eaton Vance’s largest competitors include Franklin Resources (BEN), T. Rowe Price Group (TROW) and Blackrock (BLK). In a previous article I mentioned that I am bullish on asset managers for the long run, and Eaton Vance fits by default.

Over the past decade this dividend growth stock has delivered an annualized total return of 5.30% to its shareholders.

The company has managed to deliver a 6.60% annual increase in EPS since 2001. Analysts expect Eaton Vance to earn $1.82 per share in 2011 and $1.99 per share in 2012. In comparison Eaton Wance earned $1.42 /share in 2010. The company has managed to consistently repurchase 2.25% of its common stock outstanding over the past decade through share buybacks.

Overall I am bullish on asset managers in the long run, and Eaton Vance fits by default. As we have millions of baby boomers retiring and needing financial advice, I expect them to use financial advice from certified planners, which would pre-sell open and closed-end funds and other financial products. Once a product has been sold to investors, it creates a recurring income stream to the provider of funds. The revenues that investment managers generate are realizable in cash almost instantaneously, which is a big plus. New product offerings could also contribute to growth, although at $199 billion in asset under management, it won’t be the main source of revenues for Eaton Vance. Acquisitions to obtain companies that target high-net worth individuals could be a big driver for future growth, as would be expansion internationally. Another positive is that as US stock prices keep increasing, this would eventually attract more investors to add in more money, which would create even higher profits for companies like Eaton Vance. Overtime I expect Eaton Vance to get an even larger pile of assets under management due to all of the above mentioned reasons, which would lead to earnings and dividend growth.

One of the largest risks for Eaton Vance includes competition, which could result in net outflows for assets under management as well as decrease in fees charged to clients. Another risk includes prolonged declines in equity markets, which could turn investors off stock market investing. Most notably that hasn’t been the case for Eaton Vance during the “lost decade”, as assets under management grew from $49.20 billion at the end of 2000 to $199 billion as of July 31, 2011.

The company generates a very high return on equity, which has followed the ups and downs of the stock market over the past decade. Rather than focus on absolute values for this indicator, I generally want to see at least a stable return on equity over time.

The annual dividend payment has increased by 19.80% per year over the past decade, which is higher than the growth in EPS.

A 20% growth in distributions translates into the dividend payment doubling almost every three and a half years. If we look at historical data, going as far back as 1990, we see that Eaton Vance has actually managed to double its dividend every four years on average.

The dividend payout ratio has almost tripled from 17% in 2001 to 47% in 2010. The reason behind this increase was the fact that dividend growth exceeded earnings growth over the past decade. Based on forward earnings for 2011 however, the payout ratio is less than 40%. A lower payout is always a plus, since it leaves room for consistent dividend growth minimizing the impact of short-term fluctuations in earnings.

Currently Eaton Vance is trading at 13.10 times earnings, yields 3.20% and has a sustainable dividend payout. The company rarely yields more than 2.50%, is attractively valued per my entry criteria, which is why I view the current weakness in the stock price as a good opportunity to add to my position.

Full Disclosure: Long EV

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Wednesday, September 28, 2011

How dividend stocks protect investors from inflation

I have noticed that every time I write about dividend growth stocks whose yield is less than 3%, some novice investors wonder whether this return is even worth it. Some even go on to question whether this stock will be even able to provide protection against inflation. Such comments solidify my beliefs that dividend growth investing is the most misunderstood strategy in the investing world.

First, dividend investors should not forget about capital gains. Investing in a stock, simply because it yields a certain percentage should be avoided. In fact, many investors who chase high yielding stocks are playing with fire, using money they need badly. Investors should focus on selecting the best stocks, and then try to purchase them at the right prices. Companies with growing earnings that pay a dividend yield of 2%- 3% will likely deliver solid capital gains in the process. As a result, the total returns for these dividend investors who were smart enough to capitalize on that opportunity, will exceed the dividend yield alone. Capital gains are not guaranteed of course, and are not as reliable a source of income in retirement as dividend checks. A long term investor who plans to hold on to the stock of a dividend paying stock with growing earnings stands a great chance of enjoying stock price increases in the process of holding this security.

Second, naysayers that claim that a stock whose yield is lower than inflation should be avoided, are using faulty logic. As mentioned in the preceding paragraph, stocks deliver dividends and the potential for capital gains. As a result, an increase in stock prices will maintain purchasing power of the principal. In addition, what these naysayers tend to ignore is that while the yield could be lower than inflation, investors will generate a rising stream of dividend income by investing in companies which regularly increase distributions to shareholders. Income investors should focus on whether the income stream can increase faster than inflation, rather than whether the current yield is higher or lower than inflation. A portfolio of quality dividend stocks with rising earnings and dividends will deliver sufficient income growth to provide an inflation adjusted stream of dividend income while also delivering capital gains in the process.

For example back at the end of 2007, shares of McDonald’s (MCD) traded at $58.91/share. The company paid an annual dividend of $1.50/share, for a yield of 2.50%. Investors who avoided McDonald’s stock in 2007 because its yield was less than the rate of inflation made a huge mistake however. Fast forward to September 2011, the stock is trading at $87.37/share. However, the company is now paying a quarterly dividend of $0.70/share or a cool $2.80 in annual dividends. This amounted for a 86.70% increase in dividend income for the enterprising dividend investors who spotted this opportunity in 2007. This is much higher than the inflation since the end of 2007. The capital gain of 48.30% also helped to preserve the purchasing power of the principal as well. Check my analysis of the stock.

Between 1920 and 2008 US stocks have managed to increase dividends by 4.70% per year on average, which is 1.70% higher than the average inflation per year. I expect dividend growth to be similar over the next 90 years, as global companies sell products and services to the existing middle class of the developed world as well as the emerging middle class in new economic powers such as China, India and Brazil. Besides McDonald’s (MCD), other companies that will profit from these trends include:

The Coca-Cola Company(KO) manufactures, distributes, and markets nonalcoholic beverages worldwide. The company's global operations account for 70% of its revenues. Coca-Colahas a ten year dividend growth rate of 10% per year and a sustainable dividend payment. The company has increased dividends for 49 consecutive years and yields 2.80%. (analysis)

Procter & Gamble (PG) provides consumer packaged goods in the United States and internationally. The company derives 58% of its revenues from its international operations. Procter & Gamble has a ten year dividend growth rate of 10.90% per year and a sustainable dividend payment. The company has increased dividends for 55 consecutive years and yields 3.40%. (analysis)

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of various products in the health care field worldwide. International operations account for 52% of the company's revenues. Johnson & Johnson has a ten year dividend growth rate of 13% per year and a sustainable dividend payment. The company has increased dividends for 49 consecutive years and Yields 3.70%. (analysis)

Full Disclosure: Long all stocks mentioned above

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Monday, September 26, 2011

McDonald’s: A true champion for dividend investors

McDonald’s Corporation (MCD), together with its subsidiaries, operates as a foodservice retailer worldwide. It franchises and operates McDonald’s restaurants that offer various food items, soft drinks, coffee, desserts, snacks, and other beverages, as well as full or limited breakfast menu. As of June 30, 2011, the company operated 32,943 restaurants in 117 countries, including 26, 598 franchised restaurants; and 6,345 company operated restaurants. Check my analysis of McDonald’s (MCD).

McDonald’s beefed up its quarterly dividend by 14.80% to 70 cents/share. This most recent dividend hike marks the 35th consecutive annual dividend increase for this dividend aristocrat. The company has managed to keep growing its same store and total sales worldwide, even during the financial meltdown of 2008 - 2009 as well as the recent fears of a double dip recession. Since the start of the financial crisis in 2007, McDonald’s has managed to raise dividends per share by 86.70% and earnings per share by 137%. The stock is up 48.30% since the end of 2007. This calculation does not even include dividends. An investment at the end of 2007 would be generating a yield on cost of 4.80%.

McDonald’s has been able to achieve sales growth through innovation in its menu, introduction of different drinks as well as using its dollar menu items. Since introducing its “Plan to Win” strategy eight years ago, the golden arches has focused its strategy on internal growth through maximizing existing restaurants’ profitability. In addition, the company has focused on its stores profitability and focusing efforts on strengthening its strong brand name, by disposing of non-core assets such as Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and Boston Market. The international segment, which accounts for over half of its sales, is a major driver of growth, which would not slow down even if the fears of a global double dip recessions do materialize. A major part of the strategy is focusing on generating cash flow, rather than focusing on growth for growth’s sake.

Analysts are expecting 13.50% increase in EPS in 2011 to $5.20/share, followed by a 10% increase to $5.72 /share in 2012. The new annual dividend rate of $2.80/share is sustainable at a conservative 54% dividend payout ratio. Currently, McDonald’s is attractively valued per my entry criteria at 16.80 times 2011 earnings. Investors will also get paid a 3.20% yield on cost, which will be growing by at least by 10% per year for the next decade. I will consider adding to my position in the stock subject to availability of funds.

Full Disclosure: Long MCD

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Friday, September 23, 2011

Dividend Growth Portfolio

This is the dividend growth portfolio, which will be part of the dividend growth project. You could see my actual portfolio holdings on this page.



The average starting yield as of September 23 is 4.25%.

Walgreen (WAG) Dividend Stock Analysis 2011

Walgreen Co. (WAG), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of a chain of drugstores in the United States. The company’s drugstores sell prescription and non-prescription drugs, and general merchandise. Walgreen is a dividend aristocrat which has paid uninterrupted dividends on its common stock since 1933 and increased payments to common shareholders every year for 36 years.

The most recent dividend increase was in July 2011, when the Board of Directors approved a 28.60% increase in the quarterly dividend to 22.50 cents/share. Walgreen’s largest competitors include Wal-Mart (WMT), CVS Caremark (CVS) and Rite-Aid (RAD).

Over the past decade this dividend growth stock has delivered an annualized total return of 1.40% to its shareholders.

The company has managed to deliver a 10.50% annual increase in EPS since 2001. Analysts expect Walgreens to earn $2.62 per share in 2011 and $2.99 per share in 2012. In comparison Walgreen earned $2.12 /share in 2010. The company has managed to consistently repurchase 0.50% of its common stock outstanding over the past decade through share buybacks.

Future earnings growth will be fueled by new store openings, acquisitions as well as store remodeling and improved internal growth strategies. Walgreens expects to increase comparable stores count by 2.50% – 3%. The recent acquisition of New York based Duane Reade for $1.1 billion in 2010, provided Walgreens with 257 pharmacies and 2 distribution centers. Store renovations, improving the product mix, and increasing inventory efficiency will add to profitability, as will realizing synergies from acquisitions such as the Duane Reade one. The company’s recent acquisition of Drugstore.com, will pave the way for expanding the company’s web presence.

The return on equity has decreased to 14.50% after reaching a high of 19% in 2007. Rather than focus on absolute values for this indicator, I generally want to see at least a stable return on equity over time.

The annual dividend payment has increased by 17.30% per year over the past decade, which is higher than the growth in EPS.

A 17% growth in distributions translates into the dividend payment doubling almost every 4 years. If we look at historical data, going as far back as 1980, we see that Walgreen’s has actually managed to double its dividend every five years on average.

The dividend payout ratio has doubled from 16% in 2001 to 30% in 2010. The reason behind this increase was the fact that dividend growth exceeded earnings growth over the past decade. A lower payout is always a plus, since it leaves room for consistent dividend growth minimizing the impact of short-term fluctuations in earnings.

Currently Walgreen’s is trading at 14.30 times earnings, yields 2.50% and has a sustainable dividend payout. The company rarely yields more than 2.50%, so I view the current weakness in the stock price as a good opportunity to add to my position.

Full Disclosure: Long WAG

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