Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Gold versus Dividend Stocks

Investors typically make money when the assets they own increase in value and/or when the assets they own deliver dividend, interest or rental income. When combined, income and price returns results in the total returns equation. One asset that has generated positive total returns every year since 2000 is gold. Investors who bet on the yellow metal have generated 17.70% annual returns over that period. Right now the precious metal is hitting all-time highs, as many investors expect that the amount of monetary stimulus by the Federal Reserve would create massive inflation in the US. This speculative frenzy is catching up quickly, as investors bid up gold through one of the many vehicles available to dabble – gold etfs, gold futures, physical gold etc. For example, one of the largest ETF's in the US with over 50 billion in assets is SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), which allows investors to easily gain exposure to gold.

In reality however, there are very few reasons to own gold, besides the expectations that it would hit some magical high point because the imaginary printing press of the FED would create massive inflation. Gold is typically perceived as a store of value and as a sort of international currency. When discussing gold investment returns however, it is obvious that years of great returns are followed by years of poor returns. It is important not to make conclusions based off a limited number of data sets exactly for this reason. Investors who chase gold higher, touting its investment performance over the past decade, should not ignore the fact that investors who purchased gold 30 years ago would have made only a 75% return. An investment in Treasury Bills or Certificates of Deposit would have outperformed the yellow metal over the same time period. So much for gold being a store of value. However, if we extend the investment horizon to include the past 36 years, we would notice that gold produced very decent returns overall.

So besides the fact that prices might go higher because of the imaginary FED printing press, why would investors want to buy gold? It is not a store of value, as its purchasing power has has been known to decrease over some periods of time ( such as the past 30 years for example). Gold is a decent store of wealth to hold on to during wars, persecutions and other unpleasant situations. However, unlike oil, there is no real economic reason to own the metal. Every year companies mine gold, create gold bars and coins, which are then stored at vaults. In the words of famous investor Warren Buffett “[Gold] gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.

In addition to that investors who own gold, end up paying up either for storage and insurance, or management fees if they invest through a gold ETF. Gold does not produce any income, which is ironic since it is touted as a stable currency. Every currency, stable or not could generate some sort of income return over a period of time, except gold. That’s why gold is particularly unfit for those who want to live off their assets. It is true that investors could sell a chunk of their gold each year in order to meet their expenses, but this would leave investors with a diminishing amount of gold. The rate of decrease of the amount of gold holdings in your portfolio would depend on the fluctuations in the commodity markets, which have been analyzed for centuries by market technicians, astrologists without any breakthrough as to where the prices will go next. To most dividend investors, owning gold doesn’t make much sense, since it is not an asset that produces income or generates any profit or economic/social gain to society.

Owning gold makes as much sense as stocking up on toothpaste and calling yourself a toothpaste investor. I would much rather own an asset that not only could generate potential capital gains for me but also pays me to hold it. Dividend stocks are one such asset. The best dividend stocks have strong competitive advantages, which allow the companies to pass any cost increases to consumers, which lets them increase profits over time. This leads to a higher dividend payment over time as well, which provides an inflation adjusted stream of income. In other words, investors in dividend stocks would not have to sell off their holdings, in order to meet expenses. They could just pick the right dividend stocks, create a diversified dividend machine, and live off dividends. Some of the best dividend stocks that I focus on are great inflation hedges, as their dividend and earnings have grown at or above the rate of inflation over time. They produce real goods or services, that provide value to their users, who are willing to pay the right price for quality. I do not recommend purchasing Tylenol or Gillette products as an investment. I would much rather own the companies that produce those everyday products, and profit along the way.

The companies I have in mind include:

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. (KMP) owns and manages energy transportation and storage assets. This master limited partnership has managed to boost distributions for 15 consecutive years. Yield: 6.20% (analysis)

National Retail Properties, Inc. (NNN) is a publicly owned equity real estate investment trust. The firm acquires, owns, manages, and develops retail properties in the United States. It has managed to boost distributions for 21 years in a row. Yield: 6.10% (analysis)

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) , through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes and other tobacco products in markets outside of the United States. The company has managed to raise dividends every year since it its spin off from Altria (MO) in 2008. Yield: 4% (analysis)

The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) provides consumer packaged goods in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three global business units (GBUs): Beauty and Grooming, Health and Well-Being, and Household Care. This dividend king has managed to increase dividends for 54 years in a row. The company keeps raising distributions like clockwork, as evidenced by the latest dividend hike of 9.50% in April 2010. Yield: 3.20% (analysis)

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of various products in the health care field worldwide. The company operates in three segments: Consumer, Pharmaceutical, and Medical Devices and Diagnostics. This dividend aristocrat has managed to boost distributions for 48 years in a row. Yield: 3.70% (analysis)

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) manufactures, distributes, and markets nonalcoholic beverage concentrates and syrups worldwide. This dividend aristocrat has increased dividends for 49 consecutive years. Yield: 3% (analysis)

Sysco Corporation (SYY), through its subsidiaries, markets and distributes a range of food and related products primarily to the foodservice industry in the United States. This dividend champion has raised dividends for 41 years in a row. Yield: 3.70% (analysis)

Full Disclosure: Long all companies mentioned above. I don't own any gold.

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This article was included in the Carnival of Personal Finance

Monday, March 28, 2011

Four Dividend Stocks In the News

Every week I review the list of consistent dividend raisers. I only review companies which have managed to increase distributions for more than 5 years in a row. This helps me identify potential candidates for research which might not be on the dividend achievers list yet. In order to be successful at dividend growth investing, one has always be on the lookout for hidden dividend gems.


The companies which announced dividend increases over the past week included:

W. P. Carey & Co. LLC, (WPC) together with its subsidiaries, provides long-term sale-leaseback and build-to-suit transactions for companies worldwide and manages a global investment portfolio. The company boosted its quarterly distribution from 51 to 51.2 cents/share. This dividend achiever has raised distributions for 14 consecutive years. Yield: 5.80%

Raven Industries, Inc. (RAVN), together with its subsidiaries, manufactures various products for industrial, agricultural, construction, and military/aerospace markets in the United States and internationally. It operates in four segments: Applied Technology, Engineered Films, Electronic Systems, and Aerostar International, Inc. (Aerostar). The company raised its quarterly dividend by 12.50% to 18 cents/share. This marked the 25th consecutive annual dividend increase for this dividend achiever. Yield: 1.30%

Raytheon Company (RTN) provides electronics, mission systems integration, and other capabilities in the areas of sensing, effects, and command, control, communications, and intelligence systems, as well as mission support services in the United States and internationally. It operates in six segments: Integrated Defense Systems, Intelligence and Information Systems, Missile Systems, Network Centric Systems, Space and Airborne Systems, and Technical Services. The company raised its quarterly dividend by 14.70% to 43 cents/share. This marked the seventh consecutive annual dividend increase for the company. Yield : 3.40% American Greetings Corporation (AM), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of greeting cards and other social expression products worldwide. The company raised its quarterly dividend by 7.30% to 15 cents/share. This marked the eight consecutive annual dividend increase for this company. Yield : 2.70%

W.P Carey & Co (WPC), Raytheon Company (RTN) and American Greetings (AM) look like interesting companies for further research, although they are not quite fitting my entry criteria at the moment.

Full Disclosure: None Relevant Articles:

- Avoid Dividend Cutters at All Costs
- The return of Financial Dividends
- Eight Dividend Growers In the News
- Eight Cash Machines Hiking Dividends

Friday, March 25, 2011

McGraw-Hill (MHP) Dividend Stock Analysis

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (MHP) provides various information services for the financial, education, and business information markets worldwide. It operates in four segments: Standard & Poor’s (S&P), McGraw-Hill Financial, McGraw-Hill Education (MHE), and McGraw-Hill Information & Media (I&M). The company is a dividend champion which has increased distributions for 38 years in a row. The most recent dividend increase was in January, when the Board of Directors approved a 6.40% increase to 25 cents/share. The major competitors of McGraw-Hill include Pearson (PSO), Moody’s (MCO) and Meredith Corp (MDP).

Over the past decade this dividend stock has delivered an annualized total return of 4.20% to its loyal shareholders.

The company has managed to deliver an impressive increase in EPS of 7.50% per year since 2001. Analysts expect McGraw-Hill to earn $2.86 per share in 2011 and $3.12 per share in 2012. This would be a nice increase from the $2.65/share the company earned in 2010. The company has managed to decrease the number of shares outstanding by 2.70% per year over the past decade through share buybacks, which has aided earnings growth.


The company’s high return on equity has doubled over the past decade to 40%. Rather than focus on absolute values for this indicator, I generally want to see at least a stable return on equity over time.

The annual dividend payment has increased by 11.90% per year since 2001, which is higher than the growth in EPS.

A 12% growth in distributions translates into the dividend payment doubling every 6 years. If we look at historical data, going as far back as 1989, we see that McGraw-Hill has actually managed to double its dividend every eleven years on average.

Over the past decade the dividend payout ratio has remained below 40% for a majority of the time with the exception of a brief period in 2001. A lower payout is always a plus, since it leaves room for consistent dividend growth minimizing the impact of short-term fluctuations in earnings.

Currently McGraw-Hill is trading at 14.40 times earnings, yields 2.60% and has a sustainable dividend payout. The stock meets my entry criteria, and I will look forward to adding to my existing position in it.

Full Disclosure: Long MHP

Relevant Articles:

- Kimberly-Clark (KMB) Dividend Stock Analysis
- PepsiCo (PEP) Dividend Stock Analysis
- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Dividend Stock Analysis
- Chevron Corporation (CVX) Dividend Stock Analysis

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Avoid Dividend Cutters at All Costs

Companies cut dividends when they either expects that business would deteriorate to an extent where all cash might be needed to sustain the business or because they cannot afford to pay the dividend. When management expects losses that would drain cash in the near future, they are very likely to cut distributions. When dividends are cut, stock prices typically nosedive as the last investors who have held on hoping for better news leave the sinking ship. As a rule, I always sell when a company announces that it would be cutting dividends.

Over the past three years I have had four situations, where I have had to deal with dividend cutters and eliminators. In 2008 American Capital (ACAS) suspended its dividend payment. In 2009 General Electric (GE) and State Street (STT) also cut distributions, in the middle of the financial crisis. In 2010 oil giant British Petroleum (BP) suspended distributions, amidst pressure from the US Government to hold onto its cash in order to be able to pay for the oil spill it had created. In all but one of the situations, I would have been better off simply holding on, without selling.

The reason why I typically sell after a dividend cut is that as a group, companies that cut and eliminate dividends have underperformed the market since 1972 according to a study by Ned Davis Research.

Another reason why I sell is that with dividend cutters and eliminators you have the risk that the company might be on the brink of collapse. If your strategy was to buy companies after cutting dividends, you would probably realize a lot in gains when times are favorable, like in 2009. However, during severe bear markets, such as the one between 2007 and 2009 investors buying after a dividend cut might experience losses that could lead to total loss of principal. And once investors lose their capital, they are no longer in the game. If you had a 50% chance for an opportunity to make a 100% gain in one year, along with a 50% chance for an opportunity to lose 100% of your capital you should clearly stay away from this investment. The goal of successful dividend investing is not only generating a rising stream of income, but also ensuring that principal grows over time as well.

Investors who purchased General Electric (GE), State Street (STT) and BP after the cut were plain lucky. Investors who purchased Citigroup (C) , Bank of America (BAC) and American International Group (AIG) after the cut suffered severe losses. But those losses were nothing in comparison to investors who purchased Lehman Brothers, General Motors or Washington Mutual.

The moral of the story is that in order to be successful in investing, one needs to be able to find a strategy that offers some edge and some positive expectancy. It is also important to stick to that strategy and to only exit the position when a predetermined condition at the time of position initiation is triggered.

Full Disclosure: None

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Monday, March 21, 2011

The return of Financial Dividends

The financial crisis of 2007-2009 was particularly painful to investors with an allocation to dividend rich financials. Not only did share prices collapse, but the dividend payments were slashed or eliminated as many financial institutions received funds from TARP. The big news Friday was that the federal government gave its blessing to several large institutions to finally raise distributions to shareholders.

The institutions include US Bancorp (USB), Wells Fargo (WFC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and State Street (STT).

US Bancorp (USB) raised its quarterly distribution from 5 to 12.50 cents/share. This is still below the 42.50 cents/share payment that the bank was paying before the dividend cut. Yield: 1.80%

Wells Fargo (WFC) raised its quarterly dividend from 5 to 12 cents/share. The company paid 34 cents/share before joining the crowd of dividend cutters in March 2009. Yield: 1.50%

State Street (STT) raised its quarterly dividend from 1 to 18 cents/share. I sold my position in the stock right after the dividend cut in 2009. In retrospect I could have held on to it, but given the fact that most dividend cutters in 2007 and 2008 ended up going bankrupt this was not an unreasonable decision. Yield: 1.60%

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) raised its quarterly dividend from 5 to 25 cents/share. Back in February 2009 the company cut its dividend from 34 cents/share to 5 cents/share. Yield: 2.20%

The future of financial dividends is still unclear, as it would be largely dependent on the growth in earnings in the current environment. I would definitely wait to see where distributions go from here. I also require at least a decade of consistent dividend increases before initiating a position in a stock, which is why I would be looking elsewhere for financial dividends for the next few years.

I have also highlighted consistent dividend raisers from other sectors which announced their intentions to boost distributions below:

Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) provides atmospheric gases, process and specialty gases, performance materials, equipment, and services worldwide. The company raised its quarterly dividend by 18.40% to 58 cents/share. This marked the 29th consecutive annual dividend increase for this dividend aristocrat. The stock currently yields: 2.70% (analysis)

Realty Income Corporation (O) engages in the acquisition and ownership of commercial retail real estate properties in the United States. The monthly dividend company raised its quarterly dividend to $0.1445625/share. This dividend achiever has consistently raised dividends since going public in 1994. The ten year annual dividend growth rate is 4.50%. Yield: 5% (analysis)

Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) operates as a specialty retailer of home products. It offers culinary and serving equipment, including cookware, cookbooks, cutlery, informal dinnerware, glassware, table linens, specialty foods, and cooking ingredients; and bridal and gift items under the Williams-Sonoma brand name. The company raised its quarterly dividend by 13.30% to 17 cents/share. Williams-Sonoma has raised distributions for six consecutive years. Yield: 1.70%

Xilinx, Inc. (XLNX) engages in the design, development, and marketing of programmable logic solutions. The company raised its quarterly dividend by 18.75% to 19 cents/share. Xilinx has raised distributions for eight years in a row. Yield: 2.40%

Air Products & Chemicals (APD) was out of my buy range before the dividend increase. After the generous distribution hike it fits my entry criteria nicely. I would look forward to adding to my position in the stock when I have the funds available. As far as Realty Income (O) is concerned, many investors have been disappointed with the anemic increases in distributions over the past 2 years. Luckily yield hungry investors have been bidding the stock price higher, which has increased total returns for earlier investors in this real estate investment trust. The main reason why I view Realty Income as a hold and not a buy is that the stock is not yielding as much as it used to and its dividend growth has been pretty much non-existent over the past 2 years. I would consider adding to my position in the stock on dips below $29 however.

Full Disclosure: Long APD and O

Relevant Articles:

- My Entry Criteria for Dividend Stocks
- TARP is bad for dividend investors
- Dividend Stocks Showing Investors the money
- Six things I learned from the financial crisis


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