Showing posts with label strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label strategy. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Will the dividend grow?

Dividend investing is more than just selecting the highest dividend stock and then forgetting about it. In fact, investors who simply choose dividend stocks based on yield only, without doing any additional analysis are taking too much risk. This risk could translate into full or partial loss of dividend income coupled with severe losses in principal. As a result, investors who plan on living off dividends for decades should take the time and learn about the business they are investing in. They should also try to purchase quality stocks at attractive valuations, and also hold a diversified portfolio with at least 30- 40 individual securities.

The diversified portfolio will reduce the risk to overall dividend income, should one or two components cut dividends. The detailed analysis of each company should determine whether the dividend is sustainable today, which should reduce the near-term risk of choosing a company that cuts dividends right after purchase.

The analysis of each company should include both quantitative and qualitative characteristics. Quantitative characteristics could include things like trends in earnings per share, dividends, stock prices, and returns on equity. Qualitative characteristics could include any piece of information related to the business that could help you understand the business and where it is going. Strong brands, strong competitive advantages, competitive landscape as well as whether products/services have enough appeal to gain some pricing power for the company are just a few items. In addition, any strategic plans will also add value to the analysis process.

After this analysis is complete, the investor should be able to determine whether the company will be able to deliver earnings growth in the future. After all, without sustainable earnings growth, there is a limit to the levels at which companies can boost dividends. Rising dividends will generate higher yields on cost for astute dividend investors who recognized the opportunity to purchase the right stock at the right times. There are several ways that companies manage to increase earnings:

A few ways companies can grow earnings includes:

- Increase Prices
- Cut Costs
- Sell more products
- Acquire other companies
- Create new products
- Sell or close unprofitable operations
- Share buybacks

Of course, as I have mentioned numerous times on this site, entry price does matter. Purchasing a good company at a fair price is important. I is rarely worth it to overpay even for the best dividend growth stock in the world. The attractive entry price provides the investor with another layer of protection, that limits losses, in the case things do not turn out as expected. In other words, if you have to purchase shares at 20 times earnings or 30 times earnings, it is always wiser to choose the cheaper company. This is particularly true if earnings projections are equivalent. The reason for that is in case dividend and earnings do not grow as expected, after the initial purchase.

The other important trait to have is patience. Sometimes, even the best companies in the world experience short-term turbulence. It is important to study each situation individually, and not succumb to feat and jump ship at the first time of trouble. Without patience, the dividend investor will jump from company to company, and from strategy to strategy, without really letting their capital compound over time. Remember, time in the market is more important than timing the market. Also remember that your portfolio is like a bar of soap - the more you touch it, the smaller it gets.

To put the lessons from this article in action, I have selected a few dividend paying companies, which I am reasonably certain will grow earnings and dividends at least in 2015 and 2016.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), is engaged in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of various products in the health care field worldwide. The company operates in three segments: Consumer, Pharmaceutical, and Medical Devices and Diagnostics. The company earned $2.84/share in 2004, and grew profits to $5.70 by 2014. The company is expected to earn $6.21 in 2015 and $6.56 in 2016. This dividend king has raised dividends per share for 52 years in a row. The dividend increase announcement is usually in April of each year. I would expect the quarterly dividend to reach 75 - 76 cents/share in 2015. I would the further expect the quarterly dividend to reach 79 - 80 cents/share in 2016. This would be up from 70 cent/share today. I find the stock attractively valued at 16.30 times forward earnings and a yield of 2.80%. Check my analysis of Johnson & Johnson.

PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) operates as a food and beverage company worldwide. The company earned $2.41/share in 2004, and grew profits to $4.59 by 2014. The company is expected to earn $4.75 in 2015 and $5.21 in 2016. This dividend champion has raised dividends per share for 42 years in a row. The dividend increase announcement is usually in May of each year. I would expect the quarterly dividend to reach approximately 70 cents/share in 2015. I would the further expect the quarterly dividend to reach roughly 78 cents/share in 2016. This would be up from 65.50 cent/share today. I find the stock slightly overvalued at 20.40 times forward earnings and yield of 2.70%. Check my analysis of PepsiCo.

Full Disclosure: Long JNJ and PEP

Relevant Articles

Rising Earnings – The Source of Future Dividend Growth
How to never run out of money in retirement
Margin of Safety in Dividends
Diversified Dividend Portfolios – Don’t forget about quality
How to read my stock analysis reports

Monday, January 5, 2015

How to reach your dividend income goals?

The goal of every dividend investor is to reach their dividend crossover point, which is the time when financial independence is attained. Many articles provide sources of inspiration touting the advantages of dividend stocks, while others show how to select the best dividend stocks at the best prices possible. Other articles focus on high yield, low yield, or a combination of all of them. Few articles however provide a concrete and actionable plan on how to utilize everything you know in order to reach your goals.

There are three key factors that can determine whether someone can retire with dividend paying stocks. In general, in order to be able to retire with dividend stocks, investors need to have a starting amount of capital to commit to the strategy. If they do not have a nest egg available, then the aspiring dividend investor would have to dedicate themselves to patiently building their portfolio of income producing securities, one stock at a time. This process takes time, and requires plenty of patience in order to build wealth. It also takes a lot of dedication to save money these days, rather than spend it on frivolous purchases such as new cars, big homes, expensive vacations or big screen TV’s.

Let’s look at a scenario where we have a dividend investor with zero assets, who commits to saving $1,000/month. This investor chooses to focus on dividend paying stocks yielding 4% at the time of purchase, which grow distributions at 6% annually. Our investor decides to reinvest distributions, in order to be able to compound distributions growth more rapidly.



After 10 years of saving and investing, our dedicated income investor is generating almost $2,000/quarter, which equates to $659/month in distributions. After 15 years, the monthly dividend income jumps to $1,325.

For the purposes of this example, I assumed that the investor purchases stocks which pay 4 cents/annual dividends and whose starting price is $1/share. I assume that dividends are going to increase by 6%/annually and that all future purchases will be invested in companies yielding 4% that offer a 6% dividend growth.

Now that we discussed saving money, and compounding at a given rates of return, we need to discuss how to actually invest the funds. In reality, it is difficult to predict the yield and dividend growth that new investments will generate even a few short years from now. However, having a disciplined approach where investments from approved lists are pre-screened using predetermined entry criteria is a very good start. Adapting to the current environment and keeping an open mind would be helpful as well, and keep you flexible.

In addition, it would be very helpful to focus entirely on researching companies, how they make their money, whether they can keep growing, who their competitors are and whether they have any strong competitive advantages. If you are able to invest in a few companies such as PepsiCo (PEP), Procter & Gamble (PG), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) or Wal-Mart (WMT) over time, chances are that hitting your investment goals would be much closer. Worrying about interest rates, the general level of economic activity or unemployment in Brazil would be counter-productive. Instead, focus on factors that would help the companies you pick succeed and pay you higher dividends in the process.

In addition, in order to ensure that a sustainable stream of divided income flows to them every month, investors need to make sure that a diversified income portfolio is constructed over time. A diversified income portfolio should consist of at least 30 - 40 individual stocks, representative of as many sectors that make sense at the time. If in a given year 2 companies in a 30 stock portfolio completely eliminate distributions and go to zero, but the other 28% raise distributions by 7.10%, the amount of dividend income would be unchanged. The types of companies which fit the profile today include:

Eaton Vance Corp. (EV), through its subsidiaries, engages in the creation, marketing, and management of investment funds in the United States. This dividend champion has managed to boost distributions for 34 years in a row and has a ten year dividend growth rate of 15.10%/year. Currently, the stock is attractively valued at 15.70 times forward earnings and yields 2.40%. Check my analysis of Eaton Vance.

PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) operates as a food and beverage company worldwide. This dividend champion has managed to boost distributions for 42 years in a row and has a ten year dividend growth rate of 13.70%/year. Currently, the stock is slightly overvalued at 20.90 times forward earnings and yields 2.70%. Check my analysis of PepsiCo.

Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) provides technology and engineering solutions to industrial, commercial, and consumer markets worldwide. This dividend king has managed to boost distributions for 58 years in a row and has a ten year dividend growth rate of 7.70%/year. Currently, the stock is attractively valued at 15.70 times forward earnings and yields 3.10%. Check my analysis of Emerson Electric.

ConocoPhillips (COP) explores for, develops, and produces crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas, and natural gas liquids worldwide. This dividend achiever has managed to boost distributions for 14 years in a row and has a ten year dividend growth rate of 15.70%/year. Currently, the stock is attractively valued at 12.50 times forward earnings and yields 4.20%. Check my analysis of ConocoPhillips.

Chevron Corporation (CVX), through its subsidiaries, is engaged in petroleum, chemicals, mining, power generation, and energy operations worldwide. This dividend champion has managed to boost distributions for 27 years in a row and has a ten year dividend growth rate of 10.50%/year. Currently, the stock is attractively valued at 11.40 times forward earnings and yields 3.80%. Check my analysis of Chevron.

Aflac Incorporated (AFL), through its subsidiary, American Family Life Assurance Company of Columbus, provides supplemental health and life insurance products. This dividend champion has managed to boost distributions for 32 years in a row and has a ten year dividend growth rate of 16.80%/year. Currently, the stock is attractively valued at 10 times forward earnings and yields 2.50%. Check my analysis of Aflac.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), together with its subsidiaries, is engaged in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of various products in the health care field worldwide. This dividend king has managed to boost distributions for 52 years in a row and has a ten year dividend growth rate of 10.80%/year. Currently, the stock is attractively valued at 17.70 times forward earnings and yields 2.60%. Check my analysis of Johnson & Johnson.

Full Disclosure: Long all companies listed above

Relevant Articles:

Diversified Dividend Portfolios – Don’t forget about quality
How to increase your dividend income
- Successful Dividend Investing Requires Patience
How to turbocharge dividend growth
My dividend crossover point

Monday, November 17, 2014

Should Dividend Investors own Non-Dividend Paying Stocks?

Dividend growth investing is the strategy I have been using for several years in order to reach my retirement goals. In order to be successful with a strategy and stick to it through thick and thin, investors need to understand its positives and limitations. One of the disadvantages of investing purely for dividends is missing out on spectacular price gains of hot new technology stocks. On the other hand, everyone can pick the best hot stock only after the fact. Most investors who look for the best growth stock are very often very wrong at the end. This is why I stick to the tried and true dividend champions and dividend achievers.

Apple (AAPL) is one of the best performing stocks over the past decade. The stock rose from a low of about $4/share in November 2004 to a high of about $100/share in 2012. If you look at any of the top performing stocks from ten years ago, one could notice that few of them even paid dividends, let alone maintained a streak of dividend increases. Opponents of dividend investing often use this fact as an argument against the merits of dividend investing. While as a dividend investor I am going to miss out on the next Apple, I also know that I am going to miss out on the next technology bubble, the next MCI Worldcom or the next company that will try to be the next Apple (or Google, Microsoft etc) but fail in the process. Most companies that are touted to be the "next something" end up failing, losing money for their investors and their worthless shares get delisted. Since those losers are not in the plain sight of ordinary investors, the lessons from their failures are soon forgotten by investors.

The world of technology changes very fast, which is why it is so difficult to maintain an economic moat that lasts for several decades. The companies that try to become the “next” Google, Apple or Microsoft often end up being nothing more than pipe dreams, which end up costing investors many dollars. In addition, the chances of selecting the best growth company over the next five years are really slim, unless you are a seasoned and well-connected Silicon Valley venture capitalist.

Looking at the best performing stocks over the past decade and then invalidating dividend investment altogether is not a very smart way of looking into things. This is because one is not comparing apples to apples. If instead we compared the results of dividend paying stocks to the results of non-dividend paying stocks, we could notice a stark contrast. Over the past years, dividend stock have consistently outperformed non dividend paying stocks.



The reasons behind this out-performance are somewhat counter-intuitive:

1) Dividend paying stocks are typically mature companies, which generate excess cash flows that they do not know what to do with. As a result, these companies return this excess cashflows to shareholders in the form of dividends. Some, like Procter & Gamble or Coca-Cola have increased dividends for over 50 years in a row each.

2) The boards of these dividend paying companies realize that companies cannot reinvest new money at the same rates of return. Investing new funds is important to maintain and grow the business, but unfortunately there are physical limitations to expanding business indefinitely and forever. Due to laws of diminishing returns, once you add in an extra dollar of investment that does not result in much profit, you should be better off doing something else with the money. In other words, if you are Starbucks (SBUX) and you already have four coffeehouses on a busy intersection, chances are the adding a fifth one is not going to result in a 20 – 25% automatic increase in total sales.

3) Because dividend companies are mature enterprises, their growth prospects are not going to be very high. As a result, these stocks are often trading at low price-earnings multiples. This allows investors to purchase these quality companies at a discount, and thus enjoy better compounding of capital. The companies which have very high earnings growth projections often sell at a premium price, which has high earnings growth already baked in to the stock price. The reason why Altria (MO) (which was called Phillip Morris back then) was the best performing stock between 1957 - 2003, was because it grew earnings and dividends while shares were always cheap, and thus shareholders were able to consistently reinvest dividends at low valuations. This turbocharges dividend income and capital growth.

4) While the growth prospects for mature dividend paying stocks are not as high as the prospects for a hot new IPO, they are more dependable. Many of these mature companies tend to deliver a small but consistent growth, which makes them clear winners over time. Many of these stodgy dividend champions tend to sell a similar type of a branded product or service that your parents or grandparents have used and which you and your children would likely use for decades to come. The consistent growth translates into consistent profitability, which coupled with the relative undervaluation when compared to the stock market makes investment a very good idea.

5) The dividends that these companies pay to shareholders represent a return on investment which is always positive. A company can see its stock price rise quickly to new highs or fall precipitously to all-time-lows, leaving investors with rapidly fluctuating capital gains or losses. At the same time however, income investors receiving a dividend would be essentially paid to hold on to the stock of their choice, and would be less likely to panic and sell at the worst time possible. The dividend payment, if sustainable, would thus be a factor that could keep the stock price from losing too much, since value oriented investors would step up and provide support behind the stock by purchasing it at attractive valuations.

6) The dividend payment provides a regular stream of income, which investors could use to either spend or invest in stocks that fit their entry criteria. Dividend reinvestment allows investors to compound their capital over time, through the systematic accumulation of undervalued assets over time using dividend income. This strategy has helped famous value investor Warren Buffett to accumulate a fortune worth over $60 billion. By focusing Berkshire Hathaway’s capital on income producing investments, and then reinvesting excess capital into other income producing assets, Buffett has transformed the sleepy textile company into a diversified conglomerate with a market capitalization of over $200 billion.

The article discusses dividend paying stocks and non-dividend paying stocks in general. While there could be dividend paying stocks which have failed, as well as non-dividend paying stocks which have been wildly successful, this does not change the overall conclusion that dividend paying stocks have historically done better than non-paying ones. The probability that your average blue chip dividend stock provides better returns is much higher than the probability of good returns by your average non-dividend paying stock. In order to further increase your chances of achieving your goals, one also needs to further screen out investments and evaluate the final list of candidates for inclusion one by one.

Full Disclosure: Long KO, PG, MO, PM,

Relevant Articles:

Another reason for companies to pay dividends
Why Dividend Growth Stocks Rock?
What is Dividend Growth Investing?
Should dividend investors hold non-dividend paying stocks?
The predictive value of rising dividends

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Top Dividend Growth Stocks of the past decade

Dividend growth investing is sustainable when derived from consistent earnings growth. In its true form, successful dividend growth investing is characterized by instances where annual earnings and dividend growth are almost identical. In addition, companies that exhibit such traits tend to have their current yields being in the same range of 2% - 3% during prolonged periods of time. Ordinary yield chasing investors tend to ignore such companies, because they lack the patience or forward thinking to care for high future yields on cost or strong total returns. As a result, many of these companies offer low current yields, which tend to stay low for extended periods of time. The lucky investors who purchased such securities however are able to generate high yields on cost over time.

I selected the fifteen dividend champions which have achieved the highest ten year dividend growth rates:

Name
Ticker
Yrs Consecutive Div Increase
10 Year Annual Div Growth
P/E Ratio
Yield
Div Payout Ratio
Stock Analysis
AFLAC Inc.
AFL
31
16.8%
8.90
2.60%
23%
Becton Dickinson & Co.
BDX
42
17.6%
20.50
1.70%
35%
Computer Services Inc.
CSVI
43
17.0%
19.30
2.30%
44%

Donaldson Company
DCI
28
18.4%
21.70
1.70%
37%

Helmerich & Payne Inc.
HP
42
23.3%
13.10
3.10%
41%

Lowe's Companies
LOW
52
29.2%
22.40
1.70%
38%
McDonald's Corp.
MCD
39
22.8%
16.70
3.70%
62%
MSA Safety Inc.
MSA
43
16.5%
22
2.50%
55%

Nucor Corp.
NUE
41
22.1%
27.20
3.00%
82%

Raven Industries
RAVN
28
19.2%
21.10
2.20%
46%

T. Rowe Price Group
TROW
27
16.2%
17.40
2.30%
40%
Target Corp.
TGT
47
19.8%
19.00
3.30%
63%
W.W. Grainger Inc.
GWW
43
17.2%
21.60
1.70%
37%

Walgreen Company
WAG
39
22.0%
17.50
2.20%
39%
Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
WMT
41
18.0%
16.10
2.50%
40%

High dividend growth does not make companies automatic buys. Investors need to evaluate each company in detail, and understand where future growth will come from. A solid plan with concrete deliverables communicated from the company is just one instance of something that could propel solid dividend growth going forward. Other variables that could translate into high earnings and dividend growth include taking advantage of favorable demographic trends in healthcare, baby boomers needs for retirement saving, and the rise of the emerging markets middle class.

Investors should also take with a red flag companies whose dividend growth has been slowing down considerably in the past five years or less. Nucor (NUE) rode the boom in steel prices in the first half of the decade, only to reach a plateau at the onset of the financial crisis of 2007 – 2009. The dividend growth has been miniscule for the past five years.

Investors should also look into the valuation of each company, prior to investing. Purchasing even the best company in the world that is guaranteed to boost earnings and dividends for the next 10 years could still lead to losses, if investment is made at very high valuations. Investors in Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) in 1999 and Coca-Cola (KO) in 1998 can certainly attest to this fact.

However, a booming business can be rewarding eventually even for the most unlucky investors, provided they are true long-term investors. Great businesses like Wal-Mart and Coca-Cola are attractively priced today, and have managed to record better sales, profits and dividends since hitting all-time-highs at the end of the last millennium. If they can continue pushing forward, their investors will eventually make good profits.

Full Disclosure: Long WMT, KO, NUE, LOW, AFL, BDX, MCD, TGT, WAG

Relevant Articles:

The Tradeoff between Dividend Yield and Dividend Growth
Why Dividend Growth Stocks Rock?
Four Characteristics of The Best Dividend Growth Stocks
Living off dividends in retirement
Four Percent Rule for Dividend Investing in Retirement

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