Exxon Mobil Corporation engages in the exploration, production, transportation, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company is a component of the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials and the Dividend Aristocrats indexes. Exxon Mobil has been consistently increasing its dividends for 27 consecutive years. From the end of 1998 up until December 2008 this dividend growth stock has delivered an annual average total return of 10.50% to its shareholders.
At the same time company has managed to deliver an impressive 25.40% average annual increase in its EPS since 1999. The forecasts for the foreseeable future are for a 40% -50% contraction in the EPS in 2009 followed by an increase in EPS to a $6 to $6.50 range in 2010. The sheer scale of the company gives it economies of scale. Its productivity is further boosted by the efficiency of developing new projects in Quatar, Norway and US. Exxon Mobil does business on over 200 countries and derives only 30% of its revenues from the US.
The ROE has consistently increased from less than 13% in 1999 to over 38% in 2008.
Annual dividends have increased by an average of 7% annually since 1999, which is much lower than the growth in EPS. Currently, the number of shares is lower than the number of shares at the time of the merger between Exxon and Mobil. The tremendous increase in commodities prices over the past decade has greatly contributed to the strength in earnings per share. A 7 % growth in dividends translates into the dividend payment doubling almost every ten years. If we look at historical data, going as far back as 1963, XOM has actually managed to double its dividend payment every eleven years on average. Just a few days ago Exxon boosted its dividend by 5% for the 27th year in a row. The dividend is very well covered at the moment.
The dividend payout has declined from a high of 74% in 1999 to a low of 18% by 2008. A lower payout is always a plus, since it leaves room for consistent dividend growth minimizing the impact of short-term fluctuations in earnings. The company has returned money to shareholders exclusively through share buybacks, which are typically not as consistent as increases in dividends.
Despite the low dividend payout ratio and low P/E ratio, I would need a dividend yield of at least 3% to initiate a position in XOM. I would appreciate it greatly if the company increases its payout of dividends over time at the expense of reducing its massive share buybacks. XOM has the potential to achieve an above average dividend growth over the next decade if oil prices increase over the next few year.
In comparison Chevron Corporation (CVX) trades at a P/E multiple of 5.60 and yields 4.00%, while British Petroleum (BP) trades at a P/E multiple 5 while yielding 8.40%.
I would consider initiating a position in Exxon Mobil on dips below $56.
Full Disclosure: None
- Best Dividends Stocks for the Long Run
- United Technologies (UTX) Dividend Stock Analysis
- 3M (MMM) Dividend Stock Analysis
- McDonald’s (MCD) Dividend Stock Analysis
The goal of every dividend investor is to generate dividend income that is larger than their annual expenses. This coveted goal is called th...
Dividend growth stocks are the gift that keeps on giving . I like the fact that most of the work in selecting good dividend growth stocks is...
I have been a dividend growth investor for over 7-8 years now. The reason why I have somewhere between 85% - 90% of my networth in dividend ...
As a dividend investor, my main goal is to attain financial independence when dividend income exceeds expenses by an adequate margin of saf...
I love it when the stock market goes on sale, like it has been so far in the past two - three weeks. For aspiring dividend growth investors,...
How do you define success? To me, success is the freedom to do my own thing, and the ability to reach my goals. Given the fact that I am a f...
One of the biggest sins in investing, is investing money without a clear plan or strategy to accomplish specific goals . This investing sin...
There are many risks to investing . One of the major risks that could ruin a portfolio’s chances of generating adequate dividends are p...
Before I begin my message, I wanted to wish all my readers a Happy 4th of July. And I wanted to thank all of those military members for keep...
McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD) franchises and operates McDonald's restaurants in the United States, Europe, the Asia/Pacific, the...